already existing, I presume that project will now be abandoned. Mr. Robertson, who has the interests of the different societies at heart, offered, sometime since, to procure a competent actuary’s opinion on our new rules without expense to the society, and for that purpose I sent them to him, and also furnished the actuary with similar information mentioned by Mr. Hume, and in addition the ages of our superannuate members. Mr. Robertson consulted Mr. Peter Hardy, the learned actuary of the London Assurance; so that perhaps his opinion will cause this somewhat prolonged discussion to be settled amicably at last. By the kind permission of the actuary and Mr. Robertson I enclose you a copy for publication. Alfred Richardson, May 1st, 1860”
The Actuary’s Opinion. Here follows Mr. Hardy’s opinion, which on examination, will be found not quite so rosy as Mr. Richardson would fain make it appear. It says “As the society is at present constituted, it is scarcely possible for it to absolutely break down so long as proper precautions are observed in limiting the number of members admitted to the sick-fund allowance, and so long as a sufficiency of new members can be obtained. The principal danger the society will have to encounter and to guard against are the following:- If the expenditure for death money and sick allowance, both temporary and permament(sic), should materially increase from year to year, as must reasonably be expected up to a certain point – as the ages and infirmities of the existing members increase, the quarterly contribution in that case will require to be so largely augmented that it will amount to a prohibition of new members joining the society, and will necessarily lead to the secession of a large body of the younger existing members. This will again have the effect of still further, and even of oppressingly augmenting the contribution to the remaining members, and lead to further secessions until all the members except those on the permanent sick fund will be compelled from the pressure of the heavy contribution to relinquish their memberships. If the £3,000, the amount at which the funds are to be for the future maintained will purchase or provide the requisite sick amount by way of annuity, in such case no injury beyond the breaking-up of the society and the consequent inconvenience will be sustaind(sic); but if too many members have been injudicially admitted to the permant(sic) sick fund, their interests, pro tanto, will be damaged by the breaking-up of the society. The number of members on the sick fund at the present time who may be regarded as permanent annuitants, -
